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09/02/2010 - Toronto, Canada (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Labour Day approaches in Canada and, in the CFL, that means rivalries take over for the most-anticipated weekend of the regular season. The Toronto Argonauts and the Hamilton Tiger-Cats are set to complete the home-and-home series they began in Week 8, where it was Steeltown that came away with a tight win over the Boatmen. Meanwhile, Montreal hosts the eighth-place BC Lions, and the Winnipeg Blue Bombers look to gain ground against prairie rival Saskatchewan Roughriders.
TORONTO ARGONAUTS
The Argos have battled it out with the Ti-Cats on Labor Day every year since 1948. The tradition continues again this year, and despite having a better record, it's Toronto looking to prove something.
The Argos dropped a 16-12 decision at home to Hamilton two weeks ago, courtesy of 13 points allowed in the final quarter and receiving 10 penalties for 115 yards.
Simply put, Toronto gave the game away and is hungry to exact revenge.
Despite the loss, Toronto can ride the positive vibes of having two of its players named Players of the Month for August.
Cory Boyd was named August's best offensive player after amassing 386 total yards from scrimmage, highlighted by a 164-yard, two-touchdown performance in Week 6.
Meanwhile, linebacker Kevin Eiban was named Top Canadian. He currently leads the league with 53 tackles this season.
Offensive key to the next game (Hamilton Tiger-Cats): Boyd can't do it all, but he is the most important piece of the Argos offense. Behind him, Cleo Lemon needs to throw at a higher percentage - he connected on just 18-of-31 pass attempts in Week 8.
Defensive key to the next game: Discipline comes first in this game as Toronto would have won easily had it not been for penalties. Aside from that, the defensive line needs to tighten up a little bit and not allow DeAndra Cobb to approach the century mark in rushing yards again.
Look ahead: Toronto plays the three worst teams in the league over the next few weeks, and since two are home games, it's essential the Argos win them if they want to keep up with Montreal in the East.
HAMILTON TIGER-CATS
It's been a tough go for the Ti-Cats this season, but after two consecutive wins, they're right back in the thick of things. Hamilton is just one game back of Toronto, making the Labour Day matchup a true classic in the making.
DeAndra Cobb played a huge part, having his best game of the season in Week 8 when he ran for 99 yards and scoring the game-winning touchdown in the dying minutes.
Though the Ti-Cats snatched victory from their Ontario rivals, it was not a great showing by any stretch of the imagination. Hamilton scored just three points in the first three quarters before finding the will to win in the final frame.
Hamilton will look to iron out its lackluster play from two weeks ago and come out of the gates strong at home in Week 10.
Offensive key to the next game (Toronto Argonauts): Cobb is hitting his stride now and may be the difference again this time around. However, receiver Arland Bruce is the key piece in the puzzle as limiting Toronto to just 12 points two weeks in a row is highly unlikely. Bruce will need to step up and improve on his 68-yard performance in his last game.
Defensive key to the next game: The defensive key against Toronto is the same for every team - stop Cory Boyd. Limiting Boyd to just 86 yards two weeks ago is surprisingly great defensive work.
Look ahead: Hamilton plays two top teams in Montreal and Saskatchewan over the next three weeks, and though both are at home, it will be hard for the Ti-Cats to continue to climb their way up the standings.
MONTREAL ALOUETTES
The storyline of what would have likely been a convincing Montreal win over BC in Week 10 has instead become about the injury to the Als' most important player, and how the Lions can take advantage.
Quarterback Anthony Calvillo is out and third-stringer Chris Leak is in, a replacement that has to have the last-place Lions gnashing their teeth for a chance to pick up a rare win.
Regardless of the injury, Montreal has so many weapons that it is still likely to win. This game will go a long way in showcasing what the Als can do without their best player.
Offensive key to the next game (BC Lions): While Leak is filling some big shoes, running back Avon Cobourne is likely to pick up the load. A tough task for Cobourne considering he's returning from an ankle injury, which caused him to miss the Als' last game.
Defensive key to the next game: As bad as the Lions defense has been, simply outscoring BC is the best option for the Als. However, if the Alouettes want a truly comfortable win, then clogging up lanes around the line of scrimmage is the best bet. Force Printers to go scramble and go deep, and turnovers are more than likely to happen.
Look ahead: Two of the next three weeks are against East opponents, sandwiched around a trip out west to face Edmonton. The Als are not in the clear yet for best in the East, and therefore must not let up against weaker division opponents.
WINNIPEG BLUE BOMBERS
A 116-yard performance from running back Fred Reid did little for Winnipeg in its last matchup, a 39-17 loss to Montreal in Week 8.
It was Reid's best game of the season but, if anything, it showcased Winnipeg's need for a more consistent passing game.
Steven Jyles has not been able to step up for injured quarterback Buck Pierce, as the reeling Blue Bombers have now lost four in a row.
Fortunately, they will be facing another team that has lost its footing recently in the Saskatchewan Roughriders.
Offensive key to the next game (Saskatchewan Roughriders): Quite simply, Jyles needs to play better, as 129 yards passing is not good enough in any league. That's the number Jyles finished with two weeks ago against Montreal.
Defensive key to the next game: Roughriders quarterback Darian Durant has struggled recently, and his team is suffering as a result. Winnipeg should follow the formula of Saskatchewan's recent opponents and force Durant to make mistakes and cause turnovers. Winnipeg needs to win the battle of possession to have a chance, and this is the best way to do it.
Look ahead: Winnipeg plays nothing but playoff contenders for the next three weeks after Saskatchewan. The postseason is getting to be a harder goal to achieve each and every week for the Bombers. This stretch may prove whether or not the dream is for real.
<< UTEP gets good news about RB Buckram injury
EL PASO, Texas (AP) -Texas-El Paso running back Donald Buckram has a bruised knee and may be able to play against Arkansas-Pine Bluff in Saturday's season-opener for both teams.Buckram was carted off the field during practice Wednesday, a scary sigh
<< Quizz looks forward to starting season in Texas
CORVALLIS, Ore. (AP) -Athletes often refuse to connect specific numbers to their goals for any given season, in fear they may not be able to live up to their own hype, or that they might jinx themselves.Not Jacquizz Rodgers.Oregon State's junior run
<< Padres extend affiliation with Single-A Fort Wayne
San Diego, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The San Diego Padres announced Thursday that
they have extended their player development contract with the Fort Wayne
TinCaps.
Fort Wayne is San Diego's Single-A affiliate in the Midwest League, and
<< Saluki Stadium opens tonight
Carbondale, IL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Football Championship Subdivision's
newest stadium will debut tonight when Southern Illinois christens $25.3
million Saluki Stadium against NAIA program Quincy University.
Saluki Stadium, which sits 15,0
Youngster Manassero leads in Switzerland >>
Crans Montana, Switzerland (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Italy's Matteo Manassero fired a
seven-under 64 Thursday to grab a one-stroke lead after the first round of the
European Masters.
The 17-year-old Manassero put together his best round as a profes
Celtics roll the dice with West >>
Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Miami Heat may have dominated the
offseason headlines, but the Boston Celtics are still the top dogs in the East.
After taking the Los Angeles Lakers to seven games in the NBA Finals last
season, the v
A's P Braden leaves game >>
Bronx, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Oakland Athletics pitcher Dallas Braden left
Thursday's start against the New York Yankees with cramping on a hot day at
Yankee Stadium.
Braden exited in the sixth inning with Oakland trailing, 1-0. T
Cane Pace kicks off Triple Crown series >>
Freehold, NJ (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Pacing's Triple Crown gets started on Labor
Day with the running of the $300,000 Cane Pace at Freehold Raceway. Eight
three-year-old pacers have been entered for the one-mile stakes.
The Triple Crown
BILLS (+10) at Steelers SPORTSBOOK LINES
It's impossible to gauge how a team will react after something like the Steve Everett situation, and it probably doesn't matter. That being said, the Bills are going to lose several games this year where they keep things close but fall short in the end to superior teams. Ben Roethlisberger and company could have a field day against Buffalo's decimated defense, but I like the Bills to cover.
BENGALS (-7) at Browns SPORTSBOOK LINES
All you can ask out of your NFL team is that it has a plan. You may not always agree with it as a fan, but as long as it appears the organization is going in some sort of direction, you have to go with it. Which brings us to the Cleveland Browns. You flip a coin to determine whether Chuck Frye or Derek Anderson should start the preseason opener. You start Frye in Week 1, but pull him in the first half. And then you deal him to the Seahawks for a sixth-round pick? Hmm... the Bengals could get six turnovers again this week.
COLTS (-7) at Titans SPORTSBOOK LINES
Tennessee signed ex-Colts cornerback Nick Harper in the offseason so that should help slow down Peyton Manning. Just ask Jason David and the Saints. Oh wait... One of these weeks, I'm going to learn to not pick against Tennessee, which has won seven of its last eight games. But it's not happening against Indy.
TEXANS (+6.5) at Panthers SPORTSBOOK LINES
Houston's Mario Williams, the first pick in the '06 draft, has more touchdowns than Reggie Bush after one week. Somehow I don't see that lasting. Meanwhile, Carolina bottled up what was expected to be a pretty high-octane offense in St. Louis in Week 1. Could this be the Panthers' defense everyone expected last year? Maybe. This feels like a 20-16 Carolina win.
RAMS (-3) vs. 49ers SPORTSBOOKS LINES
Absolutely love this game. Everyone's favorite pick for this year's surprise team -- the 49ers -- laid an egg on Monday night (not that anyone was watching with the game ending in the middle of the night for those of us on the East Coast). St. Louis wasn't much better, delivering a lackluster effort against the Panthers that included two Steven Jackson fumbles and panic from his fantasy owners. Jackson rebounds this week, and the Rams get their first win.
PACKERS (+1.5) at Giants SPORTSBOOKS LINES
Do you really trust this guy to win an NFL game if Eli Manning can't go? I say no. I'd feel alot better about this Packers team if it had any semblance of a running game, but I still think Green Bay's defense is good enough to give it a 2-0 start.
JAGUARS (-10) vs. Falcons SPORTSBOOKS LINES
Does it scare me to pick Jacksonville to cover a double-digit spread after it scored just 10 points last week against the Titans? Absolutely. But can I bring myself to pick Atlanta under any circumstances? No. Check out this poll on ajc.com. It asks what Atlanta's most urgent deficiency is: offense, defense, specials teams or all of the above. "All of the above" has 57 percent of the votes. Ouch.
SAINTS (-3) at Buccaneers SPORTSBOOKS LINES
I'm picking way too many road teams this week. Oh well. New Orleans has had some time to reflect on its lackluster showing in the opener, and the Buccanneers just aren't a very good football team. Anyone else surprised Tampa Bay hasn't made a move to sign Byron Leftwich? I thought that's what they do.
VIKINGS (+3) at Lions SPORTS BETTING LINES
Run the ball and stop the run. Minnesota can do both, and that will keep them in a lot of games this season. Even though it was only one week, Adrian Peterson looks like he was a steal at No. 7 in last year's draft. Not only will he produce, but Peterson delivers excitement to what otherwise would be one of the league's most boring teams.
DOLPHINS (+3.5) vs. Cowboys SPORTS BETTING LINES
Lost in the Tony Romo lovefest is just how bad the Cowboys' defense was last week. I know they're banged up, but Dallas' 'D' allowed 438 yards to the Giants' offense, and backup running back Derrick Ward averaged 6.8 yards per carry. Meanwhile, Cam Cameron's decision to split carries between Ronnie Brown and Jesse Chatman sounds about as can't-miss as Larry David's plan to show up to Marty Funkhouser's party a night late. Still, gotta go with Miami to cover at home.
SEAHAWKS (-2.5) at Cardinals SPORTS BETTING LINES
I'm probably missing something, but this game seems too easy. Arizona blew Monday night's game against the 49ers in typical Cardinals fashion, and the Seahawks beat Tampa Bay by two touchdowns. Love Seattle in this one.
BRONCOS (-9.5) vs. Raiders SPORTS BETTING LINES
Special teams was a major story line in Week 1. Take a look at the Broncos. They had to rush on to the field to get a Jason Elam field goal as time expired against the Bills. Denver drove into Buffalo territory on eight of 10 drives but came away with just a pair of field goals and a touchdown. Look for more scoring from the Broncos this week against an Oakland defense that gave up 36 points to Detroit in Week 1.
BEARS (-12) vs. Chiefs SPORTS BETTING LINES
Everyone talks about Rex Grossman when dissecting the Bears' offense, but Chicago's quarterback got no help in last week's loss to the Chargers. Meanwhile, Kansas City confirmed what we all thought while watching Hard Knocks: The Chiefs are going to stink this year. It could be a rough first month for Larry Johnson fantasy owners. Kansas City's RB was limited to 43 yards on 10 carries in Week 1, and the Chiefs face the Bears, Vikings and Chargers the next three weeks, all formidable run defenses.
RAVENS (-10) vs. Jets SPORTS BETTING LINES
A big dose of Willis McGahee and a usual sound defensive effort will give the Ravens their first win. According to Football Outsiders, no team in the NFL rushed only three defenders on pass plays last year more than the Jets. And according to my special Jets correspondent Ben Stauber, New York did the same in Week 1. Whoever starts at quarterback for the Ravens should have all day to throw.
PATRIOTS (-3) vs. Chargers
Friends and I were discussing how Bill Belichick goes about paying his $500,000 fine for cheating. Does he just write one check to the NFL? Do you need some sort of clearance to make such a monstrous financial transaction? I guess I shouldn't complain about the security deposit I have to put down on my new apartment. Anyway, two of the league's best teams square off in what should be a good one Sunday night. The Patriots always respond well just when you think they're in trouble. And their offensive attack was the story in Week 1.
Note: Monday night game will be picked Monday. Lines used are from football betting.
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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