Rushing Yards Of Steelers Yards

Football Betting Lines

San Francisco holds a slim 10-9 edge in its all-time series with Pittsburgh, with the Steelers closing the gap with a 37-16 home rout when these teams last met in 2007. The 49ers had taken four of the previous five bouts in the set prior to that loss, including a 30-14 verdict at Candlestick Park in 2003. The Steelers last won in San Francisco on Nov. 7, 1999, a 27-6 victory.

 

Even if Roethlisberger (3526 passing yards, 21 TD, 11 INT) does manage to play, the Steelers' offensive game plan will probably be altered somewhat because of his reduced mobility. Normally a team that likes to stretch the field with its pairing of fleet-footed wide receivers Mike Wallace (62 receptions, 1034 yards, 8 TD) and Brown (55 receptions, 925 yards, 2 TD), both of whom are averaging over 16 yards a catch this season, Pittsburgh may decide to lean more on running backs Rashard Mendenhall (710 rushing yards, 8 TD, 13 receptions) and Isaac Redman (353 rushing yards, 1 TD, 14 receptions) in this one. It's not the desired strategy, however, as lead back Mendenhall has had a disappointing year after posting career bests of 1,273 rushing yards and 13 touchdowns in 2010, having recorded just one 100-yard effort while working behind a shuffled front line that's dealt with injuries throughout the season. One of those occurred in the Cleveland game, with standout center Maurkice Pouncey incurring an ankle sprain of his own that his status up in the air as well for Monday. The 37- year-old Batch has attempted just 53 passes over the past three years, but did make a pair of starts in place of a suspended Roethlisberger last season and threw for three touchdowns in a win at Tampa Bay in one of those assignments.

 

Another reason why the Steelers may not want to go run-heavy is the strength of San Francisco's sturdy defense in that department. The 49ers have limited the opposition to a league-lows of 70.5 rushing yards per game and 3.2 yards per carry and have yet to give up a touchdown on the ground this season, while the team's string of 35 consecutive contests without permitting an individual 100- yard rusher is the third-longest in the NFL since 2000. The unit may not have its best stopper on Monday, though, with All-Pro inside linebacker Patrick Willis (93 tackles, 2 sacks, 1 INT) highly questionable with a hamstring strain that kept him out of last week's loss as well. The Niners were still able to hold Arizona to a mere 55 rushing yards on 23 totes with him out, with emerging star linebacker NaVorro Bowman (113 tackles) and rugged lineman Justin Smith (47 tackles, 6.5 sacks) leading the charge. Skelton came up with 282 passing yards and three touchdowns off the bench, however, with two of those scoring deliveries from 46 yards out or more. The secondary does contain two members with five interceptions each this year in cornerback Carlos Rogers (35 tackles, 15 PD) and free safety Dashon Goldson (54 tackles), while impressive rookie Aldon Smith (27 tackles, 10.5 sacks) and Ahmad Brooks (39 tackles, 6 sacks) offer two quality edge rushers from the outside linebacker positions.

 

San Francisco generally employs a conservative, ball-control philosophy that's been highly effective when workhorse running back Frank Gore (1054 rushing yards, 6 TD, 16 receptions) is at his best. That was certainly the case when the hard-nosed veteran ripped off five consecutive 100-yard games during a midseason tear, but he's been less of a factor down the stretch while fighting through some nagging injuries. The 49ers still sit seventh in the NFL in rushing offense (126.9 ypg) and have a league-low 10 giveaways on the year, with cerebral quarterback Alex Smith (2565 passing yards, 15 TD, 5 INT) having a fine season in what's been essentially a caretaker's role. There are some issues to sort out for the playoffs, though. San Francisco is at the bottom of the standings in red-zone execution, having produced touchdowns on an unwanted 35.6 percent of such drives, and Smith has been sacked 18 times over the past three weeks after being taken to the turf on five occasions by the Cardinals. The former No. 1 overall pick may be without his blind-side protector on Monday as well, with left tackle Joe Staley questionable after sustaining a concussion against Arizona. San Francisco doesn't throw the ball a whole lot, but young wide receiver Michael Crabtree (55 receptions, 2 TD) and athletic tight end Vernon Davis (49 receptions, 5 TD) have both been reliable targets for Smith.

 

KEYS TO THE GAME

 

The 49ers will likely encounter some difficulty running the ball on Monday, especially with Gore not having been in top form lately, so it's absolutely critical that the team protects Smith sufficiently. San Francisco's quarterback has been sacked five or more times in four games this season, and the Niners are 1-3 in those tilts. If Woodley does indeed make it back, Pittsburgh will have a pass rush to be reckoned with regardless of Harrison's absence.

 

Roethlisberger is rarely at a loss for drama, whether it's on or off the field, and his history says there's a pretty good chance he's in the huddle with his teammates come Monday. And the Steelers will need their clutch quarterback in this game, with the 49ers likely to shut down any attempts Pittsburgh makes at running the ball. San Francisco's been able to win double-digit games largely by establishing an efficient ground attack and playing superior defense than its foe, but both of those chores will be tough to accomplish against the Steelers. Experience counts as well, and Pittsburgh's familiarity with participating in high-stakes affairs combined with the 49ers' newness to the scene puts another check mark in the column of the reigning AFC champs, who seem to possess the requisite skills that their opponent could have plenty of trouble dealing with.

 

Lake Forest, IL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Chicago Bears wide receiver Johnny Knox had surgery Monday to stabilize a vertebra in his mid-to-lower back. The procedure was successful and the prognosis for Knox's football future is positive. No timetable has been set for his return.

 

Knox was taken off the field on a stretcher after taking a hard hit during Sunday's game against the Seattle Seahawks.

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Betting Football

NFL Football Betting Online

Is there such a thing as a trap game in the NFL?

I once asked that question to Pete Korner, who at the time was office manager and a senior linesmaker for Las Vegas Sports Consultants.

Korner almost ripped my head off. There is no such thing as a trap game, he loudly berated me. It’s a myth. The numbers are made using power ratings, he said.

There are trap games, though. They just might not be what you think. The perception is of a good team, say Philadelphia, laying a small number against New Orleans.

Using the highly-respected power ranking from The Gold Sheet, you’d find the Eagles with a power rating of 4 and the Saints at 8. When you factor the game being played in New Orleans, you could see why the line opened so short at less than a field goal.

For some, this makes it enticing to take the Eagles. That’s not a real trap game, though.

A real trap game, says professional gambler Dave Malinsky, is thinking you’re getting value betting a bad team, which brings us to the Oakland Raiders-Denver Broncos matchup.

The Raiders are +15 in this long-standing division rivalry. Denver is on a short week having dispatched Baltimore Monday. However, the Raiders haven’t covered the spread their last 10 games.

Many bettors don’t trust the Raiders to give a full effort. Few think much of Art Shell and his Oakland’s coaching staff.

So oddsmakers have to do something to make Oakland attractive if they hope to get equal action.

Now Malinsky is a value shopper. But he won’t touch the Raiders even getting more than two touchdowns.

“I try to eliminate the undisciplined, unfocused teams because they’re the ones most likely to suffer the bad beats,” he said.

Near the top of Malinsky’s list of stay-away teams is the Miami Dolphins, who have yet to cover a spread this season.

“Whatever you think of Nick Saban, you have to look at the penalties and turnovers,” Malinsky said.

It’s easy to point out the Dolphins failed to get the money this past week against New England because Olindo Mare missed a field goal and had another field goal blocked. But even though the Dolphins outgained the Patriots, 283-213, they committed eight penalties.

Bad teams not only cost themselves victories, but pointspread covers as well. The Arizona Cardinals and Green Bay Packers are two more examples.

The Cardinals couldn’t have been in a better position this past Sunday, up 14-0 at home against a mediocre Kansas City Chiefs squad. But they couldn’t hold it. The Packers got a push against St. Louis, but also could have won losing by three when Brett Favre fumbled at the St. Louis 11-yard line with 44 seconds left.

“The Packers were in a position to beat Philadelphia, too,” Malinsky said. “But they couldn’t even cover double digits.

“These teams just make mistakes and it costs you … they always will look good from a value standpoint. They really will. But that’s the trap.”

Houston and Tennessee rank among the six-worst teams. Malinsky wouldn’t be afraid to take either of these teams, however, if the price were high enough.

The Texans are bad, Malinsky said, but they have some discipline. The Titans showed they could not only come up with an outstanding game plan, but execute it as well, losing by one to the Colts on the road as an 18 ?-point underdog this past Sunday.

“Jeff Fisher is a worker,” Malinsky said of the Titans coach. “I’m not sure how hard Art Shell wants to work when he gets out of bed.”

Fisher, though, could be out as Tennessee coach after this season. Is he still worth backing in the right spot, with the right price, as a lame duck coach?

“It’s in his nature to keep working hard and not worry about any possible lame duck status,” Malinsky said. “He’s coaching for his resume.”

Note: Monday night game will be picked Monday. Lines used are from football betting lines.

Sportsbook Betting Lines

Who Makes the Sportsbook Betting Lines?

Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.

“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.

“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “

What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?

There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).

Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).

How the Opening Line Is Made

The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.

Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.

Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.

Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.

The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.

A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.

Why Sports Betting Lines Change

Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:

Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game

Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)

The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.

Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.

For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.

Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."

“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”

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